CMO 2010-2029:
Forecast data:
Blog:
Air travel market recovering
Air travel, like nearly every other industry, felt the impact of the economic crisis in 2009. Passenger air traffic declined about 2 percent as the worst recession in over six decades gripped the world's economies. But the remarkable resilience of air travel is amply documented in more than 45 years of published editions of the Boeing Current Market Outlook.
Commercial aviation has weathered many downturns in the past. Yet recovery has followed quickly as the industry reliably returned to its long-term growth rate of approximately 5 percent per year. We see that same resilience in the first half of 2010 as the industry rebounds from the recent severe downturn. Passenger traffic is projected to rise 6 percent for the year, with similar annual growth rates for 2011 through 2014.
Purpose of the forecast
The Current Market Outlook is our long-term forecast of air traffic volumes and airplane demand. The forecast has several important practical applications. It helps shape our product strategy and provides guidance for our long-term business planning. We have shared the forecast with the public since 1964 to help airlines, suppliers, and the financial community make informed decisions.
We start anew each year so we can factor the effects of current business conditions and developments into our analysis of the long-term drivers of air travel. The forecast details demand for passenger and freighter airplanes, both for fleet growth and for replacement of airplanes that retire during the forecast period. We also project the demand for conversion of passenger airplanes to freighters.
The shape of the market
Looking back 10 years to our year-2000 forecast for 2009 reveals that our projections for global traffic growth and airplane demand tend to be conservative, often underestimating the total long-term market by 10 to 15 percent. Yet our forecasts of airplane market share by size of airplane have proved to be admirably accurate.
The long-range forecast for 2010 anticipates delivery of 30,900 new airplanes over the next 20 years, valued at $3.6 trillion. Single-aisle airplanes account for the majority of deliveries -- 69 percent of the airplanes and 47 percent of the value. Rapidly expanding air service within China and other emerging economies and the spread of low-cost carrier (LCC) business models throughout the world drive this market segment. The twin-aisle market, which includes efficient long-range airplanes such as the Boeing 787 and 777, is the fastest growing segment of the market, accounting for 23 percent of the delivery units and 45 percent of the delivery dollars. High fuel costs are compelling airlines to accelerate replacement of older airplanes. In addition, the increased capabilities of the latest long-range, twin-aisle airplanes create opportunities for operators to take advantage of the ongoing liberalization of air transport markets to open new nonstop routes.
